Proud Member of the Reality-Based Community

(JavaScript Error)

linked to

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

And now for something completely Bias

Ron Insana, back on Sept 16th, wrote on MSNBC's Hardblogger-

I am not political analyst but I do believe the markets are very good barometers of where the country is both economically, politically and socially.

As you know by now, I am a believer that markets help us predict future outcomes. And in the case of the presidential race, the market has placed its bet squarely on George W. Bush. And not on John Kerry. And that's not a preferential statement... it is just a statement of fact.
After the debates, after Monkey fell off his tree - the market didn't react - or rather didn't plummet that is.

Insana just can't understand how his theory has fallen apart.

"So, all of a sudden the stock market starts rallying even though George Bush is slipping in the polls.

Newsweek, and Gallup/USA Today now have the presidential race as a statistical dead heat with John Kerry holding a slight lead. And yet stocks are going up despite the fact that it is presumed Wall Street always prefers an incumbent victory.

The Iowa electronic presidential futures show Bush plunging and Kerry spiking up, though not yet even... but again, even this market-based statistic is being ignored.
Maybe the market figures the Republicans will retain effective control of Congress. Over the last 150 years or so, a Democrat as president with a GOP Congress actually provides the best returns for the stock market on an annual basis.

Or maybe the market is suddenly more optimistic about the economy: oil prices are slipping, long-term interest rates are going up and commodity prices are firming all signs that, once again, the markets have changed their mind about the immediate future.

Or maybe they're all simply hoping for President Bush to pull out an 'October Surprise' that will electrify the electorate and swing the polls once again.
In any event... it's rare to see this much direction changing within a set of boundaries so tight."
Maybe it's because the theory was crap in the first place?

Maybe it's simply that the market is a bunch of greedy gamblers who wager on the futures of everyday people and now they see they can make a buck whether or not Monkey is re-elected...

Maybe it's because Insana is a partisan hack, shilling for BushCo?

Maybe Ron is freaking out cuz he put a ton of $$$ on BushCo with Trade Sports.

OH Poor Ron.

Maybe it's simply that those speculators/investors/gamblers simply realized that an intelligent statesman is a better choice than a stupid Monkey with crap all over himself.